Investor Home Loans Fall a Record 30.6%: What the ABS Data Shows

New investor home loans fell 30.6% in the September quarter 2026, the largest quarterly fall the ABS has on record. The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the figures on 11 November 2026: 35,301 new investor loan commitments worth $24.7 billion, down 38.5% in number on a year earlier. The ABS pointed to the potential impact of tax changes, among other factors. Here is what the data shows, what it does not show, and which rules the ABS is referring to.

Want to see how the new rules change the numbers on a property you own or are looking at? Run it through our cash flow calculator, then read our explainer on the negative gearing changes from 1 July 2027.

Key takeaways

• New investor loans fell 30.6% in number and 32.3% in value in the September quarter 2026 (seasonally adjusted). Both are the largest quarterly falls on record.
• It is the third quarter in a row that investor lending has fallen, and the ABS says the falls were broad based across every state and territory.
• Owner occupier loans fell 5.3% and first home buyer loans fell 8.6% over the same quarter.
• The ABS said investor activity was influenced by more than borrowing costs and named the potential impacts of tax changes. The negative gearing and capital gains tax changes became law on 26 June 2026 and apply from 1 July 2027.
• The figures count new loan commitments, not prices or sales, and they exclude refinancing. The next release is due on 10 February 2027.

What did the ABS release on 11 November 2026?

The ABS publishes Lending Indicators every quarter. The September quarter 2026 edition came out at 11:30am AEDT on 11 November 2026, with a media release headed “Largest quarterly falls on record led by loans to investors”. The headline figures, seasonally adjusted and compared with the June quarter:

• All new home loans: 111,878 loans, down 15.0%. Value $81.2 billion, down 15.5%, the largest quarterly fall since the series began in the September quarter 2002.
• Investor loans: 35,301 loans, down 30.6%. Value $24.7 billion, down 32.3%.
• Owner occupier loans: down 5.3% in number and 5.3% in value.
• First home buyer loans (part of owner occupier loans): down 8.6% in number and 8.0% in value.

How big was the fall in investor lending?

On every measure in the release, investors moved the most. Compared with the September quarter 2025, the number of new investor loans was down 38.5% and their value down 38.1%. The ABS notes that annual growth in investor loan numbers swung from plus 24.9% in the December quarter 2025 to minus 38.5% in the September quarter 2026.

The September quarter fall followed smaller falls in the two quarters before it. When the June quarter figures came out on 14 August 2026, the ABS reported investor loan numbers down 8.6% on the March quarter. Seasonally adjusted figures are revised as new data arrives, so the June quarter level in the latest release can differ slightly from what was first published.

According to the ABS, the falls were broad based, with strong declines in all states and territories.

What happened to owner occupiers and first home buyers?

Owner occupier lending also fell, but far less. The number of new owner occupier loans fell 5.3% in the quarter, after a 4.0% fall in the June quarter, and was down 9.8% on a year earlier. The ABS says Queensland (down 10.4%), Victoria (down 6.6%) and New South Wales (down 4.1%) drove the quarterly fall.

First home buyer loans fell 8.6% in number, after a 4.4% fall in the June quarter, and were down 12.3% on a year earlier. First home buyers still make up more than one third of owner occupier loan commitments.

Why does the ABS say investor lending fell?

The ABS does not give a single cause. In the media release, Dr Mish Tan, ABS head of finance statistics, said lending fell across all borrower types, with the sharpest fall for investors, and that investor activity is “influenced by factors beyond increasing borrowing costs”. She pointed to “the potential impacts of tax changes and expectations of lower house prices”.

Those are the ABS’s words, not a forecast from us. The data measures how many new loans were committed, so it can show that activity changed, but it cannot by itself prove why. Each buyer’s reasons differ.

Which tax changes is the ABS referring to?

The 2026 to 27 Budget on 12 May 2026 announced changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax. According to the ATO’s legislation tracker, the Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026 received Royal Assent on 26 June 2026, and the changes apply from 1 July 2027.

• Negative gearing: for established residential properties bought after 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026, losses from 1 July 2027 can only be offset against residential property income. Properties held before then keep the current treatment until sold, and new builds keep negative gearing. Our negative gearing changes 2027 guide covers the detail.
• Capital gains tax: the ATO’s CGT reform page says that from 1 July 2027 the 50% CGT discount is replaced with cost base indexation on gains accruing from that date, with a minimum 30% tax for individuals on certain net capital gains. New residential dwellings and affordable housing can choose to stay on the current arrangements.
• Still before Parliament: the Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 3) Bill 2026, introduced on 14 October 2026, includes the detailed new build definition and the minimum tax on discretionary trusts. It was not law when we checked the tracker on 12 November 2026.

How big is the average investor loan in each state?

The ABS also publishes the average size of new investor loans by state (original terms, not seasonally adjusted). For the September quarter 2026:

• New South Wales: $843,000
• Queensland: $691,000
• Western Australia: $653,000
• Australian Capital Territory: $651,000
• South Australia: $637,000
• Victoria: $589,000
• Tasmania: $509,000
• Northern Territory: $420,000
• Australia: $691,000

These are loan sizes, not property prices. A loan is usually smaller than the price paid because of the deposit, and buyers in each state borrow in different ways.

Timeline: the dates behind this data

We put the official dates in one place so you can see the order of events. Each date links back to the source above.

1. 12 May 2026: Budget announces the negative gearing and CGT changes (7:30pm AEST cut off for established property).
2. 26 June 2026: Tax Reform No. 1 Act receives Royal Assent.
3. 14 August 2026: ABS June quarter release: investor loan numbers down 8.6%.
4. 14 October 2026: Tax Reform No. 3 Bill introduced (new build definition, trusts minimum tax).
5. 11 November 2026: ABS September quarter release: investor loan numbers down 30.6%, a record quarterly fall.
6. 10 February 2027: next ABS Lending Indicators release (December quarter 2026).
7. 1 July 2027: negative gearing and CGT changes apply.

What does the data not tell you?

• It is not a price measure. Lending Indicators counts new loan commitments. It does not report what properties sold for.
• It excludes refinancing. Switching lenders is not counted as a new commitment for a dwelling.
• It does not cover cash buyers. Purchases made without a loan are outside these figures.
• It is national and state level. It says nothing about a particular suburb or property.
• It can be revised. The ABS notes data quality concerns in how lenders report internal refinancing, and expects revisions when that is resolved.

What should an investor check now?

Whatever other investors are doing, the questions for your own purchase stay the same. A short checklist:

• Is the property established or a new build? Under the new rules the tax treatment can differ, and the new build definition is not yet law.
• When was it bought or contracted? The 7:30pm AEST 12 May 2026 cut off decides which negative gearing rules apply.
• What do the holding costs look like if losses can no longer be offset against your salary? Our cash flow calculator lets you test that.
• Are your records ready? The ATO says most owners will need the market value of an asset immediately before 1 July 2027 when they later sell it.
• Have you spoken to a registered tax agent or accountant about your own position? This article is general information only.

Citadel Agency is a licensed buyers agency (licence 092247L) that helps investors research and buy property. We are not a lender or a tax adviser, so speak to your accountant and broker about the finance and tax side. If you would like to talk through a strategy that fits the new rules, book a free strategy call.

FAQ

How much did investor home loans fall in the September quarter 2026?

The number of new investor loan commitments fell 30.6% to 35,301 and their value fell 32.3% to $24.7 billion, seasonally adjusted, according to the ABS release of 11 November 2026. Both are the largest quarterly falls on record.

Is this the biggest fall in investor lending on record?

Yes. The ABS says the September quarter 2026 falls in both the number and value of new investor loans are the largest quarterly falls on record for those series.

Why did investor lending fall?

The ABS says investor activity is influenced by factors beyond borrowing costs and points to the potential impacts of tax changes and expectations of lower house prices. The data itself counts loans and does not prove a cause.

Do the figures include refinancing?

No. ABS housing loan commitments exclude refinancing. They cover loans to build a new home, buy a new home or buy an existing home.

When is the next ABS lending release?

The ABS lists 10 February 2027 for the December quarter 2026 Lending Indicators release.

Sources

• ABS media release: Largest quarterly falls on record led by loans to investors (11 November 2026)
• ABS Lending Indicators, September Quarter 2026
• ABS media release: New home loans fall 5.4 per cent in June quarter (14 August 2026)
• ATO: Latest news on tax and superannuation law and policy
• ATO: Capital gains tax reform

General information only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Speak to a qualified professional before acting.

General information only. It does not take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account and is not financial, tax, credit or legal advice.